South Gloucestershire is only two more coronavirus cases a day away from potential government intervention – one step before lockdown.

Director of public health Sara Blackmore told councillors and local NHS and care chiefs on Monday that the district had 46 new cases over the previous seven days, taking its rate to 16 per 100,000 residents.

That is higher than the average for the region and the wider South West but lower than England overall, which is about 38.

The current trigger point for coming to the Government’s attention with the prospect of Whitehall imposing restrictive measures locally is 20 per 100,000, which in South Gloucestershire equals 60 over a week – only 14 more than the current level.

But Ms Blackmore said her team had a firm grip of the data, knew where Covid-19 cases were happening and that urgent action was being taken to contain any local outbreaks, so she was hopeful that the area would not be put into a local lockdown in the immediate future.

She told a meeting of South Gloucestershire health and wellbeing board: “If we had 60 new cases over a seven-day period, that would hit our 20 per 100,000 rate.

“Our numbers are increasing, and that is also the national picture.

“Access to lab capacity is stalling access to testing.

“What we are likely to see is numbers increasing when testing increases, so that is something for us to be aware of.

“So although the South West doesn’t look so high in terms of numbers compared with other areas, we clearly need to be on the front foot.”

Asked what would happen if South Gloucestershire hit 20 cases per 100,000 population, she said: “Up until now there has been a phased escalation process nationally.

“Closest to home has been Swindon where, as they hit 20 and then higher, there was enhanced support and interventions nationally, not a lockdown because they were able to show they had a grip on the data, and that is all key to how we progress.

“In terms of our approach we are ensuring we are on it in terms of the data on a daily basis and for now just managing outbreaks, and we will respond to any new national triggers that are put in place.”

She told the virtual meeting that the local outbreak management plan, which all councils are required to have to respond to pockets of or spikes in coronavirus, contained “clear triggers when we want to take additional action”.

“A lot of what we’re doing now compared to what we were doing back in June is outbreak management, monitoring what is going on in South Gloucestershire and responding quickly when we see numbers looking as if they are increasing, based around a setting such as a school or in the community,” she said.

“We are also doing some work mapping where our most high-risk communities are.

“What is key there is working closely with local councillors, gathering local insight and intelligence, so we can really understand what is happening in local areas as we start to see more community transmission.”