Gloucestershire’s health chief has said it is currently not possible to accurately estimate the rate of Covid-19 in the county.

The rate of cases has increased steeply in recent days as the impact of the UKHSA laboratory testing issues - where an estimated 43,000 people, mainly in the South West, may have been given incorrect negative PCR test results - filters through.

Up to October 12, the county’s infection rate will have appeared lower than it really was. Since samples were redirected to alternative labs, and a proportion of the individuals have retested, the confirmed case rate in Gloucestershire has increased by 327.7% to 634.2 per 100,000.

It is likely that the county’s case rate will continue to rise steeply in the next few days – potentially appearing to be among highest levels in the UK before settling to a truer position of positive cases in the county once those that have come forward for retesting have received results.

Local authorities surrounding the county also affected by the lab issue have seen similar increases, with South Gloucestershire seeing an increase of 279.5% and a case rate of 584.1 per 100,000.

At the moment it is unclear how much of the county’s increase is due to those affected by the lab issues coming forward for retesting and how much is ‘new’ infection. As a result, it is not possible to accurately estimate the current accurate rate in the county or the precise numbers of false negatives as a result of the incident.

Sarah Scott, executive director for adult social care and public Health said: “As a result of the laboratory issues, from the middle of September up to 12 October our infection rates will have appeared lower than they really were.

"Now that samples have been redirected to other labs, the confirmed case rate in Gloucestershire has increased considerably. At the moment it is unclear exactly how many of these new cases are linked to incorrect test results because a proportion will be people coming forward to retest. However, the number of positive cases is likely to continue rising steeply, possibly towards some of highest levels in the UK, before settling to our actual rate.

“There will almost certainly have been additional community transmission as a consequence of these problems which will result in more people needing the care and support of our hardworking NHS and social care colleagues. Everyone affected should have already received a message from NHS Test and Trace on any action they need to take but we have been encouraging everyone who received a negative test during the identified period to take another one, if they haven’t already, as a precautionary measure.”

Cllr Paul Hodgkinson, Liberal Democrat Group leader and public health spokesperson, added: “I’m alarmed to see cases of Covid-19 in Gloucestershire sky rocket, with the highest number of cases ever-recorded being set this past week.

"This has only been exacerbated by failures at the Wolverhampton lab, providing false negatives to our residents, who will have spread the virus further as a result.

"While the vaccine will limit the worst of the affects, a higher number of cases will still lead to our hospitals being overwhelmed and, inevitably, more deaths.

“So many of my residents were left heartbroken ten months ago as a result of last-minute changes by the Government restricting family gatherings around the Christmas table. Nobody wants another Christmas like the last, and the only way to avoid this is to act immediately.

“Government inaction during the first wave inevitably cost tens of thousands of lives. It is time Johnson shows that he has learned to follow the science, and reintroduce certain measures – such as mandatory face-masks in indoor public places and directions to work from home as much as is realistically possible – to save lives and to save Christmas.”